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HomeAwardsAbove the Line Presents Its First Set of Oscar Predictions Based on...

Above the Line Presents Its First Set of Oscar Predictions Based on Fall Festival Buzz

As the fall festival season wraps up with the New York Film Festival and the upcoming AFI Fest in Los Angeles, it’s time to take the temperature of this year’s awards crop and see where things stand as of early October.

As of this writing, Steven Spielberg‘s semi-autobiographical coming-of-age movie The Fabelmans seems like the clear-cut frontrunner to win Best Picture, though the industry is still waiting to feast its eyes on James Cameron‘s Avatar: The Way of Water, Damien Chazelle‘s Hollywood epic Babylon, or the #MeToo-themed drama She Said, which chronicles the sad, sordid tale of Harvey Weinstein and the brave women who brought him down.

Best Actress is looking especially competitive this year, and the supporting races appear to be wide open, though The Whale star Brendan Fraser clearly has a leg up in the Best Actor race. We’ll see if Will Smith can steal any of his thunder if Apple does, in fact, decide to release Emancipation before the end of the year.

Without further ado, this is a snapshot of how I see the field right now, but let me know your thoughts in the comments section below, or on Twitter, where healthy debate is always welcome. Hehehe…

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. The Banshees of Inisherin

5. Avatar: The Way of Water*

6. She Said*

7. The Whale

8. Empire of Light

9. Babylon

10. Bones and All*

ALTS: Elvis, TÁR, or Women Talking

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

5. Todd Field, TÁR

ALTS: Baz Luhrmann, Elvis or Damien Chazelle, Babylon

Best Actor

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Austin Butler, Elvis

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

5. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

ALTS: Bill Nighy, Living* or Hugh Jackman, The Son*

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

2. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till*

ALTS: Viola Davis, The Woman King or Ana de Armas, Blonde*

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

4. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light

5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway*

ALTS: Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse* or Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time*

Best Supporting Actress

1. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Hong Chau, The Whale

4. Gabrielle Union, The Inspection

5. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness

ALTS: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever* or Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

Best Original Screenplay

1. Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Todd Field, TÁR

5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

ALTS: Armageddon Time (James Gray) or The Inspection (Elegance Bratton)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Women Talking – Sarah Polley (based on the novel by Miriam Toews)

2. She Said – Rebecca Lenkiewicz (based on the book by Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey)

3. The Whale – Samuel D. Hunter (based on his own play)

4. Bones and All – David Kajganich (based on the novel by Camille DeAngelis)

5. Top Gun: Maverick – Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie (based on characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.)

ALTS: Living (Kazuo Ishiguro) or The Son (Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller)

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